CEL] Virtual World EBBD EMAIL – for Internal Use Only To: You From: Danny Wilco <dwilco@ebbd.com> Subject: Re: Forecasting at EBBD The Management Team is all for your efforts to investigate EBBD’s forecasting situation. We want you to thoroughly analyze what we are doing, what other forecasting methods and techniques are available, and make a recommendation on how we should proceed. We are particularly interested in how to improve our short term forecasting on an annual, quarterly, and monthly basis. We also would like to know how we could do longer term forecasting, say over two or three years. And we want to know how we can generate quarterly inflation forecasts. The Management Team wants to know •What are the various methods that we should use? •Who will do the forecasting? •How will the forecasting methods be implemented? •Why should EBBD spend any money on this new methodology? Why do we care about improving our forecasting and why is it worth the costs to improve it? The report should provide an initial section on the background of the situation, assumptions that we need to make, discussion of your analysis of various forecasting methods, and then a recommendation with a justification as to why you are making the recommendation. One more thing – the Management Team might want you to make an oral presentation. So you should also prepare a draft version of a PowerPoint presentation. This does not need to be a finished product, but a draft version. The written report should be comprehensive and articulate. Send me the report and the draft PowerPoint when you have them finished. Let me know if you have any questions along the way. ~DW, VP LogOps. Learning Wizard Use the readings in the Background to familiarize yourself with forecasting and forecasting methods. You should also search for additional information pertaining to forecasting in logistics and distribution. Specific Information you need to identify to use in your report: •Why is forecasting important in a distribution company? What is it you are specifically forecasting and what is this used for? •Why is forecasting accuracy important? How accurate does a forecast need to be? •What is the difference between forecasting for existing product lines and for new products? •Why should companies spend time and money to improve forecasting accuracy? •How should a company use different methods but yet integrate these methods? •How does strategic planning fit in with forecasting (at least for long term forecasting/planning)? You should know the answers to these questions and use this information in your Report to Danny Wilco. Using the background information about EBBD’s forecasting situation and the information you obtain from the background readings and your research, write a report to Danny Wilco, addressing the questions that he posed. Then develop a draft Powerpoint presentation. Upload the Report into Case 2. Upload the draft Powerpoint into Additional Files in Module 2. Assignment Expectations of the Written Report – Be sure to write this report to your boss, Wilco. The report should thoroughly address these aspects in depth and breadth: •Problem situation: clearly elucidate the current situation at EBBD •Assumptions: assumptions that need to be made and critical evaluation •Evidence: identifying information about different forecasting methods relevant to the problem •Possible solutions: combinations of different methods and techniques to meet the requirements •Recommendations: which methods and techniques are best for which specified needs •Justification & Explanation: clear reasoning as to why the recommendations were made •Writing style & Organization: well-formed sentences and paragraphs, well organized with flow of reason, and good use of language that pertain to concepts and terminology •Use of references & Citations: at least four references. Appropriate use of APA Style is required in this paper. Expectations of the Draft Presentation The draft PowerPoint should address these aspects: •Organization: the deck has a cover slide and at least 4 content slides, and information is arranged in understandable order •Content: the deck uses bullet points that articulate and interpret key points of the report and shows relevant data, charts, graphs; notes are used in Note section of slides and possible themes of the presentation are suggested. MODULE 4 [EXCEL&PAPER] EBBD EMAIL – for Internal Use Only To: You From: Danny Wilco <dwilco@ebbd.com> Subject: Re: Deliveries clogging the loading dock area OK, here’s what I want to know: how often do we have more than 5 trucks, more than 6 trucks, and more than 7 trucks. What is the highest number of trucks we may have in the system with a 95% probability? And then, assuming the arrival rate of the deliveries does not change, what does the unload rate need to be so that we can service up to five trucks 95% of the time? In other words if we want a 95% probability of 5 or fewer trucks in the system at any one time, what does the unloading (service) rate need to be? Then, consider that we have two unloading teams, each able to unload trucks at the same rate. What does the unloading rate need to be for each team in order to ensure (100%) 5 or fewer trucks in the system at any time? I know we don’t have room for two unloading teams at this time, but there is a possibility we might make room in the future. Analyze this situation and determine what we need to know and give me report. At this point in time, I am looking only for the problem to be quantified and the unload rate determined for the current situation (single server) and possible two servers. Let me know if you have any questions. ~DW, VP LogOps. Learning Wizard If you have mastered the examples and exercises provided in the Background from the Queuing PowerPoint, you are ready to tackle the EBBD problem. The current situation is a Single Server situation. Enter the arrival rate and service rate to calculate the pertinent queuing system state data. Find out the probabilities of 5 or more trucks in the system, then 6, then 7. Then use trial and error to find the greatest number of trucks or less that can be in the system with 95% (or as close to 95%). For the Multi-server problem you will need to use a similar process. Record the results of your calculations and save the Excel file. Then write your report. Upload the Report to Case 4. Upload the Excel file with the solution to Additional Files in Module 4. Assignment Expectations of the written report – write the report to your boss, Danny Wilco. The report should thoroughly address these aspects in depth and breadth: •Problem situation: clearly elucidate the problem situation at EBBD •Assumptions: what are the assumptions that need to be made and your critical evaluation •Solution: discuss how you developed the Solver solution. Keep in mind that your audience is not too technical and do not need a lot of detail on this. ◦Make sure you attach the Excel file. ◦You should refer to the Excel file when necessary. •Explanation: clear articulation of the results that you obtain, based on what Mr. Wilco is asking for. •Conclusion: Even though Mr. Wilco is not asking for a conclusion, you should determine if there is a conclusion to this situation and elucidate what it is. •Writing style & Organization: well-formed sentences and paragraphs, well organized with flow of reason, and good use of language that pertain to concepts and terminology •Use of references & citations: If you use references, be sure to include appropriate use of citations in the paper and reference list (APA is required).
